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The research has been moved from user Punk rawk boi's blog to this page. Information here is not yet altered. If you feel like picking up the research where this user left it, please do. Information below is added by other users and might be very helpfull.

WikiPim

New raw data as of 19/02/13: 154 adventurers' results, gathered with adv bonus between 65 and 80 (lvls 107-123). Attempting several types of analysis (see "questions to be answered"), but if others want to take a crack at analysis as well, the full dataset is provided below.


Conclusions So Far

  • Estimated probability of success is 50% for happy advs and 33% for neutral ones, assuming it's only modified by whether or not they leave happy. Even angry advs have a slight chance to come back successful.
  • Whether an adventurer likes an item or not is likely most likely random, but modified by the factors under consideration (adv skill, item given, etc) - similar to haggling being random but modified by the ST skill, initial offer relative to market price, etc.
  • How good a reward you get has been confirmed to correlate only to the item requested, not to the item given.


Early Analysis - Full

  • I was once told that if an adventurer leaves cursing (noted below by "reaction = -2"), they have a 0% chance of success. However, one adv did leave cursing and come back with a reward. (Healer, requests devilish rod, given vial of mana, 78 points in adv, brings back red charm + 2.6K)
  • I assume that all variables in question (adv points, item given...) only contribute to whether an adventurer leaves happy or not, and once they have left, what mood they were in is the only thing contributing to their success chance going forward. With this in mind, I tallied the success chances based on their reaction:
    • ​Positive reaction: 34/64 (53.13%) successful
      • 42.14% < x < 63.88%  at p=.9
      • 36.56% < x < 69.21%  at p=.99
      • Guess at the true probability: 50%
    • Neutral reaction: 28/74 (37.84%) successful
      • 28.40 < x < 48.03  at p=.9
      • 23.84 < x < 48.03  at p=.99
      • Guess at the true probability: 33%
    • Negative reaction has too few data points to say anything conclusive (1/8)
  • Some interesting apparent conflicts have arisen. A few examples:
    • Archers
      • A: Requests banker's mark (6.5K), receives composite bow (2.3K) - 64% lower price and mismatched item class. With 65 points in adv, leaves happy.
      • B: Requests yeti armor (2.4K), receives perfect leather (1.9K) - 20% lower price and matched item class. With 79 points in adv, leaves neutral.
    • Engineers
      • A: Requests warrior's ring (3.2K), receives skull crusher (1.4K) - 58% lower price and mismatched item class. With 75 points in adv, leaves happy
      • B: Requests bile jar (2.7K), receives vial of mana (1.5K) - 46% lower price and matched item class. With 79 points in adv, leaves neutral.
    • Soldiers
      • A: Requests talisman of fear (2.6K), gets scutum (1.6K) - 36% lower price and mismatched item class. With 65 points in adv, leaves happy.
      • B: Requests labrys (2.4K), gets pirate axe (2.1K) - 13% lower price and matched item class. With 68 points in adv, leaves neutral.
    • War wizards
      • A: Requests ice shard scroll (5.5K), gets soldier's sword (1.2K) - 79% lower price and mismatched item class. With 65 points in adv, leaves happy.
      • B: Requests noble tiara (2.3K), gets cleric's hat (1.1K) - 53% lower price and matched item class.  With 65 points in adv, leaves neutral.
    • Possible explanations
      • Whether an adventurer likes an item or not is still due to random chance, but this chance is modified by the factors under consideration (adv points, item suggested, etc). Due to other game mechanics being known to work this way (eg. haggling and the ST skill), this seems the most likely.
      • Adventurers are more willing to accept cross-class items when they are requesting rings or pendants.
        • Counterexample with war wizards
        • A: Requests ice shard scroll (5.5K), gets soldier's sword (1.2K) - 79% lower price, mismatched item class, not requesting a ring or pendant. With 65 points in adv, leaves happy.
        • B: Requests talisman of fear (2.6K), gets vial of mana (1.5K) - 43% difference, 77 points in adv, leaves neutral.
        • Could extend this theory to "rings, pendants, and scrolls / consumables", but that seems pushing it...
      • Classes have a "favourite item" which is more important than class matching. This suggests archer B would have left happy with a composite bow, for instance.
      • There's another variable in play that was not being considered - eg, what else was in stock in the shop at the time.
  • Reward values
    • Looked at ratio of value of rewards brought back by successful advs (N=62) to the value of the item requested  / given. Rares converted at a semi-arbitrary value of 1.5K each.
    • Ratio to requested: mean=2.84, stdev=0.96
    • Ratio to given: mean=8.59, stdev=5.2
    • The much higher standard deviation on the second ratio supports the fact that this does not effect rewards (confirming what was previously thought).


Further questions to be answered:

  • How do you best ensure an adventurer leaves happy? i.e. attempting to quantify the effects on leaving happy due to...
    • Matching item class - either subclass (eg. potion) or superclass (eg. consumable)
    • Price difference
    • Adventurer class
    • "favoured item" of a given adventurer class, if any (ie. are archers more likely to leave happy with a composite bow than a similarly priced item with a matching item class?)
  • Are adventurers more willing to accept cross-class items when requesting rings or pendants?


Full Data

Archers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Band of light 5565 Composite bow 2330 58% 77 1 0
Banker's mark 6535 Composite bow 2330 64% 65 1 -1
Fast loading arbalest 3490 Composite bow 2330 33% 65 0 0
Lava scroll 3230 Composite bow 2330 28% 73 1 1 6 gems
Lava scroll 3230 Composite bow 2330 28% 75 1 0
Pendant of thunder immunity 4115 Composite bow 2330 43% 65 1 0
Perfect jade 12860 Composite bow 2330 82% 80 0 -1
Travelling boots 4275 Composite bow 2330 45% 80 1 0
Unholy talisman 8055 Composite bow 2330 71% 80 1 1 Mind saver (37.1K)
Viking helmet 5465 Composite bow 2330 57% 80 1 1 10 feathers
Yeti armor 2390 Perfect leather 1910 20% 79 0 0
Salve of protection 2800 Rejuvenating herbs 940 66% 75 1 1 3DB, thief's mark (4.3K)


Barbarians

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Warrior's ring 3225 Composite bow 2330 28% 65 0 0
War labyrs 5240 Pirate axe 2095 60% 79 1 0
Biomace 2725 Skull crusher 1365 50% 80 0 0
Fine lance of the wolf 5325 Soldier's sword 1165 78% 65 -1 0


Bards

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Elemental top 6195 Cleric's hat 1090 82% 75 0 1 Invisibility robe (16K)
Noble tiara 2320 Cleric's hat 1090 53% 75 1 0
Anti-elements band 1975 Double flute 1550 22% 68 0 -1
Dancer shoes 4130 Double flute 1550 62% 68 0 0
Pendant of ice immunity 9285 Double flute 1550 83% 80 0 0
Restoration powder 3405 Double flute 1550 54% 77 0 0
Scholar's mark 3120 Double flute 1550 50% 80 0 0
Twin flute 5370 Double flute 1550 71% 80 0 1 Streamlined conscience (11.1K) + 1.1K
Sawsword 8870 Soldier's sword 1165 87% 74 0 0
Health drink 2950 Vial of mana 1465 50% 75 0 1 Twin flute (5.4K) + 0.7K


Berserkers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Double shot 7590 Composite bow 2330 69% 80 0 1 Attribute seed (35.1K)
Mask of fear 5315 Composite bow 2330 56% 75 1 1 9DB
Paladin's heater shield 4375 Scutum 1640 63% 68 0 0
Soft potion 5540 Vial of mana 1465 74% 79 1 1 Invisibility robe (16K)


Engineers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Fast loading arbalest 3490 Hunting crossbow 1190 66% 75 1 0
Barbarian chief armor 3815 Perfect leather 1910 50% 65 1 0
Reign coat 9040 Perfect leather 1910 79% 78 0 1 22K
Thief's mark 4265 Perfect leather 1910 55% 80 0 1 9 gems
Fast loading arbalest 3490 Skull crusher 1365 61% 65 0 1 Vicious chopper (7.5K) + 0.3K
Mask of fear 5315 Skull crusher 1365 74% 80 -2 0
Warrior's ring 3225 Skull crusher 1365 58% 75 1 0
Bile jar 2725 Vial of mana 1465 46% 79 0 1 Kris (4.3K) + 1.5K


Evokers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Purse-opener 3050 Assassin's dagger 1540 50% 80 1 1 Insulated fur boots (4.8K) + 3 feathers
Thief's mark 4265 Assassin's dagger 1540 64% 65 0 1 9.2K
Band of light 5565 Vial of mana 1465 74% 80 0 0
Cleansing staff 4730 Vial of mana 1465 69% 65 0 0
Dryad staff 2385 Vial of mana 1465 39% 75 0 0
Healer's staff 5100 Vial of mana 1465 71% 65 -2 0
Lava scroll 3230 Vial of mana 1465 55% 75 1 0
Ring of conservation 7380 Vial of mana 1465 80% 80 0 1 Power of oceans (29.8K)
Unholy talisman 8055 Vial of mana 1465 82% 77 0 0


Guards

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Knight's hauberk 2935 Lorica segmentata 1230 58% 75 1 -1
Amulet of evil protection 2450 Scutum 1640 33% 80 1 1 5 feathers
Foundation ring 8700 Scutum 1640 81% 80 -2 0
Medusan bull shield 2815 Scutum 1640 42% 80 1 1 Sniper rifle (4.8K) + 1.1K
Fine gauntlets 3475 Skull crusher 1365 61% 68 0 0
Talisman of fear 2570 Skull crusher 1365 47% 80 0 0
War gauntlets 3260 Skull crusher 1365 58% 77 0 0
Zhanmadao 2330 Soldier's sword 1165 50% 68 0 1 4 feathers


Healers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Skill seedling 6865 Rejuvenating herbs 940 86% 80 1 1 Vest of lies (6.1K) + 8.2K
Dark robe 3960 Rich cloak 1350 66% 65 0 1 Soft griffon gloves (8.4K)
Talisman of fear 2570 Rich cloak 1350 47% 78 0 0
Devilish rod 7710 Vial of mana 1465 81% 78 -2 1 Red charm (5.5K) + 2.6K
Ionstorm scroll 6370 Vial of mana 1465 77% 80 -2 0
Thief's mark 4265 Vial of mana 1465 66% 80 1 0


Illusionists

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Fire ring 6515 Rich cloak 1350 79% 80 -1 0
Healer's staff 5100 Rich cloak 1350 74% 65 0 0
Red charm 5565 Rich cloak 1350 76% 80 0 1 11 mithril
Pendant of thunder immunity 4115 Short fuses 1160 72% 65 -1 0
Clairvoyance amulet 2515 Vial of mana 1465 42% 68 0 0
Healer's staff 5100 Vial of mana 1465 71% 75 -1 0


Knights

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Pendant of safety 3845 Scutum 1640 57% 80 1 1 Lightning bold scroll (6.7K) + 2 gems
Seven seas shield 4355 Scutum 1640 62% 80 1 1 10.5K
Dark paladin hammer 3375 Skull crusher 1365 60% 77 0 1 2 feathers, fiery dragon (6.3K)
Scholar's mark 3120 Skull crusher 1365 56% 75 0 0
Trident 2405 Skull crusher 1365 43% 74 1 1 3 gems, scholars mark (3.1K)
Bile jar 2725 Vial of mana 1465 46% 75 0 1 2 feathers, thief's mark (4.3K)
Knight's ranseur 3190 War pike 2940 8% 65 1 0


Monks

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Smith's apron 7675 Rich cloak 1350 82% 80 1 1 Absolute zero scroll (36.6K)
Anti-elements band 1975 Vial of mana 1465 26% 65 0 1 2DB, crushing fist (5.5K)
Pendant of thunder immunity 4115 Vial of mana 1465 64% 75 1 0
Priest's mark 5740 Vial of mana 1465 74% 65 0 -1
Thief's mark 4265 Vial of mana 1465 66% 75 1 0
Thief's mark 4265 Vial of mana 1465 66% 65 0 0


Musketeers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Dual wielder's gloves 2340 Assassin's dagger 1540 34% 74 1 0
Thief's mark 4265 Assassin's dagger 1540 64% 68 0 1 Flux shuriken (9.6K)
Barbarian chief armor 3815 Perfect leather 1910 50% 80 1 1 Elemental talisman (6.4K) + 2 feathers
Fiery dragon 6340 Perfect leather 1910 70% 78 0 0
White great sword 4020 Perfect leather 1910 52% 78 1 0
Ring of the dice 5865 Soldier's sword 1165 80% 65 -1 0
Magic drink 3515 Vial of mana 1465 58% 65 1 0


Ninjas

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Spider's fang 10790 Assassin's dagger 1540 86% 65 1 0
Feathered hat 3135 Cleric's hat 1090 65% 80 0 1 Vest of lies (6.1K) + 2 gems
Vorpal sword 8180 Fine great sword 4365 47% 80 1 1 Meteor shower scroll (57K)
Ice brand 9695 Rapier 1115 88% 80 -1 0
Restoration powder 3405 Rejuvenating herbs 940 72% 78 1 0
Bile jar 2725 Vial of mana 1465 46% 78 1 0


Paladins

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Frost axe 5035 Assault axe 1520 70% 80 1 1 Fiery partisan (9.7K) + 0.6K
Pendant of safety 3845 Lucky amulet 635 83% 75 1 0
Pendant of thunder immunity 4115 Lucky amulet 635 85% 80 0 -1
Orcish bane 3420 Rapier 1115 67% 80 1 0
Ionstorm scroll 6370 Scutum 1640 74% 80 1 1 Hand-of-god (17.3K)
Strong cleaver 4110 Scutum 1640 60% 65 0 0
War mask 5240 Scutum 1640 69% 79 1 0
Dark paladin hammer 3375 Skull crusher 1365 60% 80 1 1 Crushing fist (5.5K) + 2 mithril
Ring of wizardry 3480 Skull crusher 1365 61% 75 0 -1
Ring of wizardry 3480 Skull crusher 1365 61% 80 1 1 Elven commander (7.8K)
Thief's mark 4265 Skull crusher 1365 68% 79 1 0
War labyrs 5240 Skull crusher 1365 74% 65 0 -1
Holy spray 9765 Vial of mana 1465 85% 79 1 1 Piercer (60.7K)


Singing Axes

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Bard's lute 3340 Double flute 1550 54% 65 1 1 Elemental talisman (6.4K) + 1.1K
Health drink 2950 Double flute 1550 47% 73 0 1 6DB
Ring of conservation 7380 Double flute 1550 79% 80 0 0
Thief's mark 4265 Double flute 1550 64% 65 0 0
Vicious chopper 7535 Double flute 1550 79% 80 0 0
Courier's boots 19765 Traveling boots 4275 78% 80 1 1 Blackbeard (85.9K)


Soldiers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Spider's fang 10790 Assassin's dagger 1540 86% 80 0 1 20 gems
Kabuto 4170 Kabuto 4170 0% 80 1 1 Banker's mark (6.5K) + 2.6K
War gauntlets 3260 Perfect leather 1910 41% 75 1 0
Labyrs 2405 Pirate axe 2095 13% 68 0 0
Murasame 6455 Rapier 1115 83% 80 0 1 Ifrit's flaming apparel (23K)
Talisman of fear 2570 Scutum 1640 36% 65 1 1 5DB
Dark paladin hammer 3375 Skull crusher 1365 60% 75 0 0
Mask of fear 5315 Skull crusher 1365 74% 80 -1 1 Spider's fang (10.8K) + 2 gems
Paladin's sabatons 6400 Skull crusher 1365 79% 80 0 0
Ice brand 9695 Soldier's sword 1165 88% 77 -2 0
Ionstorm scroll 6370 Vial of mana 1465 77% 80 -2 0


Sorcerers

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Zazen amulet 2780 Cleric's hat 1090 61% 65 0 0
Vest of lies 6105 Rich cloak 1350 78% 80 0 1 Storm scroll (12.9K) + 0.6K
Priest's mark 5740 Vial of mana 1465 74% 80 1 1 Rage token (13.8K)
Shiny shoes 2550 Vial of mana 1465 43% 68 1 1 2DB, war drums (3.9K)
Zazen amulet 2780 Vial of mana 1465 47% 80 1 1 6 mithril


Thieves

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Amulet of evil protection 2450 Assassin's dagger 1540 37% 68 1 0
Banker's mark 6535 Assassin's dagger 1540 76% 80 -2 0
Kris 4320 Assassin's dagger 1540 64% 79 0 0
Thief's mark 4265 Assassin's dagger 1540 64% 80 0 -1
Banker's mark 6535 Perfect leather 1910 71% 80 1 1 Dragon's sabatons (37.8K)
Elven brigandine 4185 Perfect leather 1910 54% 80 1 1 8DB
Noble's gloves 2275 Perfect leather 1910 16% 80 0 1 Bow of precision (3.2K) + 2DB
Priest's mark 5740 Perfect leather 1910 67% 80 1 1 Holy sword (11.1K) + 1.9K
Unholy talisman 8055 Perfect leather 1910 76% 80 0 0
Warrior's ring 3225 Perfect leather 1910 41% 78 0 0


War Wizards

Item requested Value Item given Value Δ? Adv pts Rxn? Rwd? Reward detail
Noble tiara 2320 Cleric's hat 1090 53% 65 0 1 Bow of precision (3.2K) + 2.4K
Dual wielder's gloves 2340 Rapier 1115 52% 80 1 0
Shiny shoes 2550 Rapier 1115 56% 80 1 1 Elven brigandine (4.2K) + 1.1K
Elemental talisman 6380 Rejuvenating herbs 940 85% 65 -1 0
Restoration powder 3405 Rejuvenating herbs 940 72% 77 0 1 Murasame (6.5K) + 1.8K
Shiny shoes 2550 Rich cloak 1350 47% 65 0 0
Travelling boots 4275 Rich cloak 1350 68% 80 0 1 Reign coat (9K0
Courier's boots 19765 Riding boots 1475 93% 75 0 1 Scorpion (151.5K)
Travelling boots 4275 Riding boots 1475 65% 79 1 1 Fiery partisan (9.7K)
Amulet of evil protection 2450 Soldier's sword 1165 52% 65 0 0
Ice shard scroll 5470 Soldier's sword 1165 79% 65 1 0
Knight's sword 3315 Soldier's sword 1165 65% 65 0 1 2 feathers, ring of the dice (5.9K)
Orcish bane 3420 Soldier's sword 1165 66% 75 1 1 6 feathers
Ice shard scroll 5470 Vial of mana 1465 73% 73 0 0
Orcish bane 3420 Vial of mana 1465 57% 80 0 0
Talisman of fear 2570 Vial of mana 1465 43% 77 0 0


Data below has become outdated with the update of september 6.

As a mathematician, I have been wondering what sort of success rates I was getting from my random adventurers. Once I got my Adventurer skill up to 50, I decided to start recording some information on my quests. It should be noted, that I did not start this experiment until after I hit level 110. As a result, I did not receive items as quest rewards. I had heard that the item rewards declined after hitting 100, and after receiving several items after that point, I was further motivated to start recording what awards I was receiving. Being my first attempt at recording the information, there are some things that I left out that I now realize I should have included. The following is the raw data that I recorded. I will provide some observations after the tables.


Archer:

Day TIme Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
706 5PM Meteor Shower Ebony Bow Y N $125,126 0
714 6PM Apocalypscion Ebony Bow Y N $126,916 Mithril x20
716 1PM Rebirth Potion Ebony Bow Y N $70,577 0
716 3PM Calamitous Bow Ebony Bow N Y 0 0
719 8AM Dragon Leather Ebony Bow Y N $67,390 0

Barbarian:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
708 10AM Apocalypscion Great Sword Y N $133,626 0
712 12PM Dragoon's Sabatons Great Sword N Y 0 0
716 8AM Dragon Leather Great Sword N Y 0 0

Bard:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
705 4PM Meteor Shower Scroll Double Flute Y N $96,862 Mithril x 20
710 11AM Absolute Zero Scroll Double Flute Y N $89,882 0
715 6PM Sky Mantle Double Flute Y N $75,873 0
718 9AM Lord of Darkness Double Flute N Y 0 0

Berzerker: No adventures during time period

Engineer:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
705 9AM Soul Sniper Skull Crusher N Y 0 0
705 2PM Crushing Sledgehammer Skull Crusher N Y 0 0
706 12PM Atmosring Skull Crusher N Y 0 0
708 11AM Dragon Leather Skull Crusher N Y 0 0
709 10AM Rebirth Potion Skull Crusher N Y 0 0
712 5PM Deathbringer Skull Crusher Y N $166,110 0
717 4PM Apocalypscion Skull Crusher N Y 0 0

Evoker:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
707 1PM Moon Stone Staff Vial of Mana Y N $62,599 0
707 2PM Streamlined Conscience Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
710 8AM Sky Mantle Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
714 5PM Apocalypscion Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
717 12PM Apocalypscion Vial of Mana Y N $133,111 0
718 5PM Meteor Shower Scroll Vial of Mana Y N $139,232 0

Guard:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
710 2PM Transmundane Pike Scutum Y N $24,712 0
716 11AM Gungnir Scutum N Y 0 0
717 8AM Attribute Seed Scutum Y N $71,847 0

Healer:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
706 8AM Sky Mantle Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
711 8AM Apocalypscion Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
717 6PM Sky Mantle Vial of Mana N Y 0 0

Illusionist:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
706 2PM Apocalypscion Vial of Mana Y N $138,148 0
709 6PM Absolute Zero Scroll Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
710 9AM Meteor Shower Scroll Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
710 12PM Lord of Darkness Vial of Mana Y N $66,755 0
713 10AM Lord of Darkness Vial of Mana N Y 0 0
713 2PM Meteor Shower Scroll Vial of Mana N Y 0 0

Knight: No adventures during time period

Monk:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
713 8AM Rebirth Potion Vial of Mana N Y 0 0

Musketeer:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
708 1PM Lightning Bolt Assassin's Dagger N Y 0 0
712 4PM Apocalypscion Assassin's Dagger Y N $151,262 0
715 1PM Absolute Zero Scroll Assassin's Dagger N Y 0 0

Ninja:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
711 10AM Invisibility Robe Assassin's Dagger Y N $35,490 0
712 8AM Attribute Seed Assassin's Dagger Y N $71,255 0
718 9AM Apocalypscion Assassin's Dagger N Y 0 0
718 3PM Rebirth Potion Assassin's Dagger Y N $77,458 0

Paladin:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
712 9AM Mind Saver Great Sword N Y 0 0
719 2PM Simon's Whip Great Sword Y N $49,531 0

Shaman: No adventures during time period

Singing Axe: No adventures during time period

Soldier:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
705 10AM Lionheart Great Sword Y N $133,636 0
707 5PM Demon Plate Great Sword N Y 0 0
713 4PM Transmundane Hammer Great Sword Y N $19,697 0

Sorceror:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
717 1PM Sky Mantle Vial of Mana N Y 0 0

Thief:

Day Time Request Supplied Success Failure Result Mats
705 1PM Rebirth Potion Perfect Leather Y N $69,801 0
707 10AM Dragon Leather Perfect Leather N Y 0 0
710 10AM Apocalypscion Perfect Leather N Y 0 0
711 4PM Meteor Shower Scroll Perfect Leather Y N $134,137 0
713 3PM Meteor Shower Scroll Perfect Leather N Y 0 0
714 12PM Meteor Shower Scroll Perfect Leather N Y 0 0
717 10AM Dragon Leather Perfect Leather Y N $74,592 0
719 10AM Apocalypscion Perfect Leather N Y 0 0

War Wizard: No adventures during time period

Totals:

Class Successes Failures Success Rate Rewards*
Archer 4 1 80% $402,509
Barbarian 1 2 33% $133,626
Bard 3 1 75% $275,117
Engineer 1 6 14% $116,110
Evoker 3 3 50% $334,942
Guard 2 1 67% $96,559
Healer 0 3 0% $0
Illusionist 2 4 33% $204,903
Monk 0 1 0% $0
Musketeer 1 2 33% $151,262
Ninja 3 1 75% $184,203
Paladin 1 1 50% $49,531
Soldier 2 1 67% $153,333
Sorcerer 0 1 0% 0
Thief 3 5 38% $278,530
Totals 26 33 44% $2,380,635
  • - The mats rewards were converted to cash at a rate of $625 per unit.

mean of the rewards (26/total) = $91,563

expected value for quests = ($91,563 * .44) + ($0 * .56) = $40,288

variance for quests (E(X^2) - E(X)^2) = $2,065,758,917

standard deviation for quests (SQRT(Variance)) = $45,450.62

So, what do these numbers mean? To begin, we look at the items I was supplying for the quests. The market value for each items ranges from 1.4K to 1.9K. This means that with an investment of around 1.7K your expected return is $40,288. The ROI (Return on Investment) for some random quest should be about 22.7. This would be an impossibly high ROI if we were dealing with the stock market, but since this is S&P, we can only use it as a marker for what I was earning during the course of this experiment. If the rewards from quests goes up as the shopkeep's level goes up, then the ROI will increase since the investment is staying the same.

Now, the incredibly high variance for this experiment is something which should be expected, and will also go up as quest rewards increase. If we assume that the 44% quest success rate remains true, then there will always be a 56% chance to get $0. And since quest rewards increase, the huge difference between success and failure will have the effect of making the variance skyrocket.

As my first attempt at an experiment for measuring quest success rates, I have found several things which I could improve upon. For instance, in my next attempt, I have decided to include the shopkeep's level along with the creature the adventurer is targetting. There are also some redundant columns in my data. I essentially just copied them from the excel sheet I created, where the success and failure columns were used for counting. Here, they are just wasted space. In the future, I'll probably change the success/failure/results columns into Response/Reward columns. I'll predefine each response (so you'll be able to distinguish between killing target and forgetting and selling item) into shorthand and show the rewards if there are some. Also, any future experiment will need to last longer since there were several classes that were not represented. This will allow me to provide some statistics for the individual classes in addition to overall stats. As it stands now it seems like the Archer and Ninja are the best classes where as the Healer and Engineer are among the worst. Also, with sufficient quests, I may diversify the items I supply the adventurer to see if the item changes the success rate.

If you have any suggestions or comments, please feel free to comment and I'll take them under consideration,

- PRB

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